Doggy's picture

Doggy


Peterborough, NH

MEMBER SINCE   April 12, 2017

Favorites

  • SPORTS MOMENT: 1986 NY Mets World Series...Jesse Orosco tossing that winning glove high in the air!
  • HOCKEY PLAYER: Of all time? Brian Leetch!
  • NHL TEAM: CBJ
  • NFL TEAM: Brownies

Recent Activity

Comment 6 hours ago

Not to beleaguer the point but have you even seen Sorokin's stats (Islanders goalie)?  He's 25 so right in line with Korpi and Elvis and where Elvis played in Swiss league, Sorokin has been cutting his teeth in the KHL (clearly a better league).

  • 2015-16: 28 Games, 1.06 GAA and .953 Save Percentage
  • 2016-17: 39 Games, 1.61 GAA and .929 Save Percentage
  • 2017-18: 37 Games, 1.59 GAA and .931 Save Percentage
  • 2018-19: 40 Games, 1.16 GAA and .940 Save Percentage
  • 2019-20: 40 Games, 1.50 GAA and .935 Save Percentage

I know goalie stats are inflated in the KHL but his numbers are always near the top.  The kid is battle tested, played a heavy workload and will still get to ease in because he can share then net with Varlamov.  I am not sure the Isles are worried about goaltending in the near future.  Kid might be a star.

Shesterkin for the Rangers is young but he also had some dynamite stats in the KHL.

Neither one has proved it in the NHL but the same could have been said for both of our goalies heading into last season.  Both teams are set for years to come.

Comment 6 hours ago

Thanks for responding...I will dig more into understanding GVSA.  My degree is in accounting so I love numbers but sometimes the advanced metrics go screaming over my head no matter how hard I try to understand :)

Comment 13 hours ago

OSWH, good point.  My reading comprehension skipped right over the Edmonton/Vancouver comment.

I was thinking along the lines of Vrana in Washington who they might not be able to afford in 2021-2022 or Jakob Silfverberg in Anaheim (always been a fan of his) or Rickard Rakell.  Reilly Smith in Vegas.  Those would all be trades for players who can help right now and would mean giving up assets going the other way.

For contracts you take on in order to pick up an additional asset, you take a Derek Stepan off Arizona's books and they would have to throw in a nice draft pick or young player.  In Vancouver that player would be Loui Eriksson.  How about Stepan and a 1st for a 2nd rounder?

Comment 13 hours ago

OWSH45,

I think we should be prepared for the fact the Metro which was already so good last year is going to be that much better next season from top to bottom.  I don't see any of last year's teams running away with the division but I do see all the teams (other than NJ) making this conference even more of a battlefield than before.  Remember we were sixth out of eight teams in the division barely ahead of the Rangers (and I expect the Rangers to be greatly improved this season).  And not sure what you have against the Isles, they just played in the EC finals and finally got their young future franchise goalie to cross the pond from Russia and they are still coached by the Mad Scientist.

I think we have a good team, we have a respectable team but I don't think there is an easy path to the playoffs in this division.  It feels like the stretch run to the playoffs will come much earlier and happen before the mid-point of the regular season.

Comment 14 hours ago

Alison, I LOVE the work you do with advanced stats although sometimes it can be overwhelming.  Thanks for the breakdown and insight.

Here is my question for you (because I think I see a flaw in the analysis): I assume Dom is not a CBJ fan and does not follow the team intimately the way we fans do...and certainly not like you do.  It seems like there is no context to the projections and that is a fatal flaw for every team he projects.

Examples...and you said it yourself.

PLD's projected value has gone down from last season.  Presumably this is because he was overvalued last season which was likely based on the trend of the previous two year's metrics.  The context is that the two previous years while playing with Bread his numbers were trending upward significantly so the advanced metrics assumed another jump.  Fans who follow the team closely understood that without Bread that PLD's role would change a bit and his responsibilities would go up and that his metrics were not likely to trend up at the same rate as before.

Because PLD disappointed the projected metrics for last season, Dom's model over-corrects and PLD's valuation goes down for this season.  Whereas it is more likely PLD will continue to mature and grow into his role and there is no reason not to expect continued growth.  This can be one for any number of players like Tex, Jonesy, Bemmer, and Kukan.

Add in the fact we know Torts went more conservative trying to protect his young goalies last season (he himself has said he hopes to open up the offense more this coming season).

Or...am I completely off base and I should just shut up because I understand nothing?

Comment 21 Oct 2020

That could be a possibility. Often times the cap hit is higher than the actually salary in the last year or two of a veteran contract so it’s an easier pill to swallow. 

Comment 21 Oct 2020

There is a gaping hole in between budget and cap teams.  I guess it is up to everyone to interpret it the way they see it.  I don't believe a team is a budget team just because they don't spend to the cap.  I certainly don't think they were a budget team last year, bumping your head against the cap is unwise...gives steam little wiggle room during the season.  As for this season...

  • $81.5 = Cap
  • $68.6 = CBJ currently payroll
  • $62.75 = CBJ payroll assuming Dubi is LTIR
  • Salaries for PLD, Stenlund and Gavrikov = just a guess but I bet you are looking at $5.5, $1.5 and $2
    • PLD could be anywhere from a bridge with an AAV of $5 to a long term deal with $7.5 - $8.  Stens was already making $925K so he gets a bump to $1.2 - $1.5.  Gavrikov was already at $1.35 and he should make more than Kukan and Harry ($1.6+) so safe to say he is $2 - $2.5 AAV.
  • $71.75 = CBJ payroll after three RFAs signed

So Jarmo is sitting on $10 Million.  Maybe its an internal budget Mac Jr. gave him...we don't know and Jarmo sure as hell ain't telling us or anyone else.  Maybe he is waiting to get those two big RFAs signed and then assess how much play money he has left.  Hoffman is still available, perhaps a guy like Soderberg would be an option or maybe Jarmo still has a big trade left in him.  Maybe a guy like Jakub Vrana could be pried away from Washington or Laine from Winterpeg.

Comment 21 Oct 2020

I don't get how the other team gains salary cap space.  If they bring in Dubi and then subsequently LTIR him, they have put $5.5 Millio on the cap and then taken $5.5 Million off the cap.  Where have they created extra space?  Why would they give is a draft pick or anything to do that?

The deal with Horton was his salary was not insured.  The CBJ could have LTIR'd him and saved the cap space but the salary was cash out of pocket for Mac Jr.  Toronto is a big market team and could afford to pay the cash to gain the cap space, CBJ could not.  Clarkson's contract was structurally different basically set up as bonuses every year so waiving him didn't ease the Leafs cap situation.  So CBJ made the trade figuring we had to pay $5+ Million per season whether it was Horton (on LTIR) or Clarkson (playing minimal role), might as well get a player that can play third line or something.

As for Arizona with Hossa, Hossa was a 35+ contract so even though he was no longer going to play the Hawks were going to be on the hook for the rest of his contract and have it count against the cap.  The Hawks wanted to free the cap space up and the Coyotes had extra cap space they weren't doing anything with.  So...Coyotes take on Hossa's contract and in return, they also get some valuable assets out of it.

We did the same thing when we traded what was left of Clarkson's contract to Vegas.  Typically the team taking on your wasted cap space gets something...not give something.

Dubi is different, If I am correct the CBJ can simply LTIR him, he comes off the cap and insurance pays his salary.  There is no incentive for the CBJ to trade away his contract (which we would have to give up an asset to have someone take his contract off our books.  And there is no reason why someone would give us an asset for doing us a favor by taking him on.

Comment 20 Oct 2020

I am sorry GM, I am missing your logic here and need an explanation.  Dubi's career is over...he is never going to play again.  It is expected the CBJ will move him to LTIR where the final year of his contract will be paid by insurance and his money will come off the cap.  Why is another team going to trade us any asset for a player they are simply going to put on LTIR (same as us)?

Maybe I don't understand how LTIR and its affect on salary cap works.

Comment 20 Oct 2020

I think Dubi's contract is insured so it won't cost the CBJ anything to LTIR him and we will get the cap space back.  I don't know how the rules work so not sure why Jarmo has not done it yet but he basically said Dubi won't play again because of his wrist.

Comment 20 Oct 2020

I have it on my phone but have not been using it.  I am usually on my laptop so I just go to the KHL's English site.  Why?

Comment 17 Oct 2020

While I 100% agree that the difficulty here is that if PLD and Gavrikov were signed then Jarmo could play more in free agency if he wants to and has the green light.  The PLD hold up is frustrating...just get it done.

I will argue that Domi is a shiny new toy.  Though it came from a trade, it came for a guy we got near zero production from last season (yes I expect him to bounce back but from all intents and purposes he was a zero last season).  Not to mention he is a playmaking center who plays both ways...Andy is a unique player and although Domi cannot do the things Andy does, Andy can't do the things Domi does.  Domi has averaged 18 Gs and 37 As per 82 games for his career.  Andy will never be that kind of playmaker.

Comment 17 Oct 2020

Look, nobody will know whether Chinakhov was a reach or not until 3-6 years down the road when you can compare him to the other guys that were available when he was picked.  If Chinakhov becomes a productive player while Lapierre, Zary and Foerster struggle then its not a reach.  Especially when you get to #21 in the draft when luck becomes a bigger part of the drafting process.  I would add that a good player is a good player...at that point nobody will care where he was picked.

I would add Foudy was considered a serious reach at #18OA as well (very few experts had him as a first rounder).  Same thing goes with him, if he turns into a top six forward and his numbers are comparable or better than the other players drafted around him is anyone really going to care?

I love the kid's shot...its amazing.  But most of those highlights are probably from last year vs Juniors players.  I want to see more of that vs the big boys this season (and he is off to a good start).  Additionally, though having a goal scorer is great I want to see his playmaking skills, where are the passes to set up his teammates.  I wanna see him make the players around him better.

Comment 06 Oct 2020

Don't get me wrong, I like Andy but this s a good trade for the CBJ.  We pick up a versatile play making Center/Forward.  Forget the supposed animosity between Andy and the CBJ because of the last contract, how the heck do you quanitfy what is a fair contract for a guy who scored 27 Gs two years ago, 1 G in 26 games last season and has now had his share of injuries.  He's one year away from UFA, its a crappy situation...I am glad its Montreal's GM trying to figure Andy's value out now.

If Domi is willing to sign here then determining his value will not be complicated and a deal can be done quick.  The fact we got an extra 3rd rounder is a bonus.  Nice job by Jarmo.

Comment 04 Oct 2020

https://twitter.com/CBJProspects/status/1312750024552591361

Tried to embed tweet but function did not work for me :(

Comment 27 Sep 2020

Why would the Jets trade the guy with "way better character, better on defense, long term contract with a reasonable cap hit, better speed...", and ask for dramatically less for him?

Seems to me they either would not move that guy or ask for "dramatically" more.  I understand your position but ts unrealistic to expect the Jets to move the guy with the more complete game but take less for him.