Here we go.
The last month of the NHL regular season is nearly upon us, and for the Columbus Blue Jackets, every game is worth watching.
The prize is an obvious one: Connor Bedard is not your typical top prospect and has good potential to become synonymous with a name like Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, or another Connor — the Oilers' McDavid. The second-place prize, Adam Fantilli, is the number one pick in most other drafts, and even the third pick, widely expected to be Leo Carlsson, would go number one in some years.
And because of that, the mission is a simple one: embrace the losses, and become huge fans of teams including the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, and Arizona Coyotes.
Make no mistake about it: there's absolutely no way that general manager Jarmo Kekalainen and other Columbus brass want to see the Blue Jackets play themselves out of the best odds for a top spot. It's happened before: in the 2014-15 season, the Blue Jackets were among the worst teams in the league but finished 15-1-1. They still missed the playoffs, finished with the 8th pick in the draft and got Zach Werenski. A good get, sure, but the top prize went to Edmonton and the 26-year-old McDavid has 819 points in 552 games.
So give Kekalainen (and anyone else in the organization) these two options, and promise that the answer stays anonymous:
A) Finish 10-5-4, add 24 points and finish with the sixth-worst record.
B) Finish 5-10-4, add 14 points and finish with the worst record.
Spoiler: they're all picking B — and for the sake of the next two decades, so too should butts that fill Nationwide Arena.
This doesn't require that a Blue Jackets faithful actively root against their favorite team (though one could, and many are). A few wins to keep some morale are fine, especially in front of the home crowd, but truly: what good is a win in San Jose next week against another bad team? That has serious potential to flip the proverbial ping pong balls, and is a Tuesday night win in southern California (that most Columbus fans aren't awake to see) really worth it? Really?
Here's where things stand as of today:
In the meantime, an updated look at the bottom five:
Let's recap this, one point at a time:
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Despite playing a little better lately, the Blue Jackets still own the worst record in the league. (See above about morale wins.)
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They are on pace for the fewest points in the league, projected to finish about one game worse than the Blackhawks and Sharks.
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It would take a monumental run (a la the above-mentioned 15-1-1 finish) to finish outside of the bottom five, meaning that Columbus should — at worst — have an 8.5% chance to draft Bedard.
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The Blue Jackets cannot pick up more than two points between now and this weekend, and even that would require a win in Pittsburgh — something the Blue Jackets have not done in more than seven years. In other words, unless Columbus pulls off a massive upset Tuesday night against Crosby and company, the Blue Jackets are guaranteed to still have the best odds to draft Bedard at the end of this workweek.
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Every other bottom-five team has at least three games this week (Chicago and Anaheim have Friday night games).
While not fun to endure, this is a quintessential "make the most of what you have" scenario. Reality must trump fandom here.
But Columbus' play the final five weeks is only a part of the story. While absolute tanks by the Vancouver Canucks or Montreal Canadiens could thrust them into watch territory, both are on pace to finish with more than 70 points and at least for now, we'll dismiss them as a serious threat to finish bottom three. (Still, their remaining schedule will be included below.)
That leaves four teams in play to directly compete with the Blue Jackets for the top spot: the Blackhawks, the Ducks, the Sharks, and the Coyotes.
First up, let's see who those teams have left on the schedule:
And from there, a breakdown of what it means:
Add up all the schedules, dissect all the numbers, and you get this: According to tankathon.com, the worldwide leader in tanking, the Blue Jackets have the toughest remaining schedule of the five. It's not terribly daunting, ranking 12th toughest in the league. But it's tougher than Chicago (barely, at 13th), San Jose (17th), Arizona (23rd), and Anaheim (26th).
Root how you wish from here on out, but if Bedard is wearing a Blackhawks sweater this time next year and running roughshod around the league, don't forget to ask yourself this: was a couple of wins in southern California at 1:00am last March worth it?