Well, the offense woke up.
Believe it or not, there was actually a time when people were actually concerned with the Blue Jackets offense, and particularly the first line. Or so I’ve heard – I certainly didn’t write anything about it (and you certainly can’t read that non-existent article here). It doesn’t matter now, though, because the Jackets are hot.
There are just seven teams that have scored at a better per-game rate so far than the Blue Jackets. Tonight’s opponent is one of them.
A matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning stands between the Blue Jackets and more franchise history. A 6-1-0 start (or a 5-1-1 start) would be the best mark in the club's history. The Bolts have been just as good this season, sitting in second in the Atlantic at 5-1-1 thanks to a stellar 3.86 goals per game mark. There’s star power there, with Nikita Kucherov (who has been ridiculous), Steven Stamkos each tallying a ludicrous 12 points through seven games. In fact, Tampa has five (!!) players who are at a point per game pace or higher so far.
And yet, tonight is as much of a test for them as it is for the Jackets.
It’d be inaccurate to call the Blue Jackets offense hot-and-cold at this point – more like hot and lukewarm. They’ve lit the lamp five times in half of their games so far. They got timely scoring in a three-goal effort against the Rangers in another spooky Friday the 13th win, and got a clutch breakaway goal from Sonny Milano to topple Carolina in overtime. The offense has only truly struggled in one game, a 5-1 loss in Chicago, but a team underperforming in the second half of a back-to-back, in a different city, against a good team won’t win many of those matchups.
Short sample size? Sure. But the Jackets are pretty damn high up on the NHL leaderboards for team offensive stats, and they’re doing all of their damage at even strength.
The Jackets are eighth in goals per game (3.50) and sixth in shots per game (35.7). They were similarly ranked in those stats last year, ranking sixth in goals per game (3.01) and ninth in shots per game (31.0) in 2016-17. Those numbers, though, were buoyed in the first half by an absurdly strong powerplay. Through December 31 last season, the Jackets had an unbelievably good 27.5% conversion rate on the powerplay, which boosted their goals per game number up to 3.46.
When the calendar turned, though, the powerplay dried up. From New Year’s Day onward, Columbus scored on just 12.8% of their power plays – just edging out the hilariously inept Colorado Avalanche for 29th out of 30 teams. This, predictably, dragged down their goals per game to a so-so 2.68.
So, in a way, it’s actually a positive that the Jackets’ power play has been useless so far this season.
They’ve gone to the man advantage 16 times and come away with just one goal – Zach Werenski’s opening-night snipe. Only the Ducks and Islanders have been worse, having literally not scored a power play goal yet.
Sixteen five-on-five goals. Two three-on-three goals. One goal six-on-five, and one five-on-six empty netter. One power play tally. An astounding 86% of the Blue Jackets goals have come at even strength – a league-best mark. That’s one hell of a good sign for the rest of the season, no?
The shot attempts tell a similar story, as Columbus is a top five team in SAT%, taking 55.22% of the shot attempts in their games so far.
Last season’s point totals may not be sustainable (it’s really, really hard to win 16 straight games), but this year’s team could be in a much better position to contend than their predecessor. Elite even-strength scoring and a power play that can’t get any worse should lead to big things for this team.
Don’t forget, this team still holds one of the league’s best stables of defensemen and – oh, yeah – Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes.
The Jackets have almost never hosted a marquee matchup like tonight’s (or Saturday’s, against the upstart Los Angeles Kings) this early in the season. Expect a stiff test, but don’t be surprised if they pass it with flying colors.
