With NHL All-Star weekend in the rear-view mirror, the Columbus Blue Jackets will embark on the home stretch of their season.
We've written about this before, and it's no secret. February is a gauntlet. The club plays 10 games of its 13 games against division opponents.
Perhaps no stretch will be as crucial in determining their fate as the next 14 games, the number of games separating them from the Monday, Feb. 26 trade deadline.
Note: The 14th game (vs. Washington) will take place after the afternoon deadline passes.
The pre-salary cap trade deadline was a different animal than the current, parity-filled version of the NHL. Consider that as of the All-Star break, just 10 point separate teams in sixth place (Washington) and 22nd (Chicago) in the standings. Said differently, the Blue Jackets' 57 points are tied for 12th, but also tied for 17th.
Needless to say, it's hard to say who is a "buyer" and who is a "seller" just yet. It's safe to assume that the bottom few teams will be looking to the future, but where do we draw the line? Edmonton sits at 24th in the league at 47 points and have a marginal (at best) chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but with Connor McDavid on an entry-level contract, giving up on this year would be a tough pill to swallow.
I only use that anecdote to show that in a razor-thin league, even bottom-feeding teams have difficult decisions to make (Note: if you're asking, the Oilers should be sellers).
Where does this put Columbus?
If we use the above logic, 23 teams would be buyers, at least to varying degrees, while only eight would be sellers.
Columbus would be considered a buyer, but like many other teams, that would come with an asterisk. It begins with Jack Johnson, the veteran defenseman who has publicly requested a trade. Teams typically prefer to gear up for a playoff push/run by adding a player like Johnson. Trading him could be an indication that this club isn't invested in being a buyer this season. Of course, that could all change based on what a potential return for Johnson would be, so there are variables at play.
Also consider that Matt Calvert is a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA). It's not been reported if Calvert has had contract talks to return to Columbus for next season or beyond, but he would be a player to garner some interest at the deadline.
Lastly, remember that next season's off-season is a crucial time for Columbus. Zach Werenski will be a restricted free agent, and Sergei Bobrvosky and Artemi Panarin will be UFAs. Even if Columbus is a buyer this season, management will carefully analyze whether or not it would hinder their ability to re-sign their most important players.
That, too, could be a moot point. If Columbus finds itself floundering in the air-tight Metropolitan Division (Columbus is in second with 57 points, Carolina is last with 52), GM Jarmo Kekalainen could be in a position where it makes sense to find suitors for his pending UFA's. On the other hand, a strong February that keeps them in the playoff race would give Kekalainen a reason to make tweaks to his roster.
The next few weeks will go a long way in determining how management approaches the rest of the season – for better or worse.
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