Mitch Marner and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
It may not be likely — but it can't be ruled out, and the rumors are rampant. President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Don Waddell has indicated that he wants to be active this summer and it wouldn't get much bigger than landing the best soon-to-be unrestricted free agent on the market.
The Blue Jackets are also a team that has the money to be him; that's something that a lot of teams can't say. They have one of the better young nuclei in the league; that's also something that a lot of teams can't say.
But should Marner be someone that Columbus goes all in on no matter what the price tag is?
Our team of Ed Francis, Dan Dukart, and Will Chase discuss the pros and cons of what adding the upcoming free agent forward to the Blue Jackets would mean for the franchise, both on and off the ice:
ED FRANCIS: No Blue Jacket has ever had a 90-point season with Columbus; Marner has had three in his last four seasons, has four in his career, and likely would’ve had five (67 points in 55 games) if not for the COVID-shortened season of 2021.So he’s obviously an elite talent who can rack up points. Who wouldn’t want that, right?
…having said that, I have some concerns; the chief of which is how it could potentially affect the feng shui of the organization. The core group has been pretty meticulously built over the last few seasons and we finally start "the future" become "the present" this season. A few goalposts here and there and this team makes the postseason — and it wouldn’t have been a coincidence.
Do you shake it up for a guy who has a history of fading in big moments and has as many shifts in the Stanley Cup Finals as the three of us? Is it the right time to shake it up with a player that would instantly be, by a wide margin, the highest-paid player in franchise history and one of the highest paid guys in the league? I genuinely don't know, but am I alone in these concerns?
DAN DUKART: You're not alone, Ed. I'm of two minds on this. I believe that GMs are tasked with the difficult job of building two teams - one that gets a team to qualify for the playoffs, and one that gets you through the playoffs. For a team like Columbus, getting to the playoffs should be the more immediate goal. So, in that sense, Marner is perfect. As you said, he's an incredibly productive player who is perfectly built for the long haul that is the NHL regular season. On the other hand, this roster may be trending towards a playoff berth with or without Marner, and if he doesn't add as much in the playoffs, then is he really worth that kind of financial outlay? I think that's a fair point, too.
WILL CHASE: Both of you make great points and hit the chief arguments for both pro and against signing Marner that have been on my mind.
I'm more in the "pro" camp than not — probably something like 70/30 in that he's a proven regular season commodity. The only objection really comes down to price and maybe using that amount on multiple players to fill multiple needs. As Ed pointed out, he would easily be among the team leaders in points, although guys like Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski, and others could be closing in on that territory over the next year or more after several breakout seasons this past year.
It's also fair to wonder about the personalities and how that could affect the current core. But I think about the impact Marner has on his teammates and how much more that can help the current group reach new ceilings. According to Natural Stat Trick at 5v5, Marner had a 3.15 GF/60, placing him second on the Maple Leafs behind Auston Matthews. Marchenko was top 5 in the league among players with at least 1,000 ice-time minutes with 3.81 GF/60.
Of course the other side of the equation is this as Dan has said, what about his playoff performance? Columbus is trying to get back to the playoffs for the first time since its four-game historic sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019. We’re talking pre-Covid - the bubble notwithstanding. Though Marner's playoff performances might not be as impactful in the past as you would like, I tend to think each of that Leafs core can thrive in the right situation. It might just be that the Leafs core didn’t work out for whatever reason. Marner is going to get paid this year and I think the Blue Jackets, as we've talked about in the past, need that elite horse.
If it's not Marner, it'd be interesting to see how Waddell addresses the needs required to upgrade the roster. But without a doubt Marner, often a vote-getter for the Selke award (presented to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game), possesses the two-way traits Columbus can use. We saw Werenski have his best season to date on the ice and just as importantly, we saw how much of a leader he was off the ice. Along with the leadership core including Boone Jenner, Erik Gudbranson, and other veterans, there appears to be the right nucleus to foster both the present core and future additions. If Marner wants to come to Columbus as a UFA, I tend to believe he's buying into how this organization is operating and he sees himself as the important piece that the money it will take to sign him would signify.
FRANCIS: Buy-in is huge. Waddell wants (as every GM should want) guys who want to be here and guys with character. Marner does (or would) check both of those boxes.
So all three of us have mentioned that we’re hesitant on the price tag. There are rumors out that there that the Carolina Hurricanes are prepared to offer him seven years at $14 million per year. If you’re Waddell, do you offer that same contract? More? Less?
DUKART: Less. One, I just don't believe he's a $14M player, even in an increasing salary cap environment. Two, even if he was, I'm not sure it would play well in the locker room to bring in a player at that number, especially given that their current highest paid player (Werenski) makes $9.5M AAV, and their highest paid forward, Sean Monahan, is at $5.5M. That would be quite the statement. And for the record, I have no issue with giving a theoretical player that kind of coin - I would just prefer it's someone with proverbial skins on the wall.
FRANCIS: That’s a fair point about him being the highest paid guy by far and what it might mean in the locker room but I think all across the league, you’re going to see similar situations play out. The cap is way up and the market is adjusting accordingly — my hunch is that Werenski, Monahan, and other guys across the league would be fine with it because it’s just inevitable. I’d feel much about him in the $12m range, which was a reasonable rate six months ago but now it seems like it’ll take at least 13 (or, 14+ if the Carolina rumor is true) and that just feels too like it’s too much. Will, you said you’re 70/30 on him — if it costs 7x14, would you do it?
CHASE: I don't think a player making a certain number and his average annual value would cause any ramifications as far as the players in the room. The AAV on Gaudreau's deal was $9.75 million which was the highest — Werenski is at $9.583. Like Ed said, with the rising salary cap, it's a world of inevitably. But to Dan's point, I understand preferring it being a guy with proverbial skins on the wall.
If Columbus has to overpay a bit, that's the cost of doing business for an elite talent. But to answer your question, Ed, 7x14 might be too rich. If it happens, I won't hate it and will hope for the best. But maybe it's better to spread that money on a few players at that point. Another thing to think about is having him on your team versus him being on a division rival. I don't know that Carolina will pay what it takes for Marner anyway but would Waddell offer more to keep Marner away from other teams in the Metro?
FRANCIS: That does seem like something Waddell would do. I just — as good as a player as he is — can’t make the $14 million dollar commitment to him. When the price was around $12, I liked it a lot more.
But let’s fantasy book this: let's say Marner signs in Columbus. He’s obviously on the top line. But who do you guys see being the best fit for him to play with? Being centered by Sean Monahan seems obvious, but I also feel like I wouldn’t hate his game alongside Adam Fantilli? No matter what, feels like the CBJ would have two top lines — 1 and 1A, we’ll call it — and that’s something this team hasn’t had in forever.
CHASE: I don’t know if Ed is swaying me or if it’s because I was already 70/30 to begin with but pairing him with Fantilli so tempting. A talent like Marner is sure to boost this team to new heights. The question is how high — but having two top lines is something the team has never been able to boast about. We saw prolific offense from this group. Assuming natural progression, imagine the chemistry and potential no matter who lines up with Marner.
DUKART: If it were to happen, I would love to see him alongside Fantilli. Fantilli's straight-line speed would create pockets for Marner, and Marner's creativity and playmaking would make life easy on Fantilli. If we're really fantasy-casting this, give me Yegor Chinakhov on the other wing, who would benefit from having less on his 'to-do' list and could just focus on finding open ice and releasing his incredible shot. That would be a tantalizing line, if it were to happen.
FRANCIS: Chinakhov is really tempting, but I'm not convinced he's on the opening night roster. He seems like the kind of player that could be trade bait. That's another story for another time, though. I'll say this to close it out: family matters. And Columbus has developed a bit of a reputation as a good city NHL city to settle down in. Marner is married and has a baby at home. Does that sway him? It may, it may not — but if it does, he wouldn't be the first player who came here for those reasons.
Ultimately, it sounds like we're all excited at the prospect of Marner and the Blue Jackets — but nervous about the price tag. With the salary cap going up, sticker shock may be something we all just need to get used to.
Where do you stand on the idea of Marner and the Blue Jackets? Sound off in the comments.
