Scoreboard Matters: But The Expected Numbers Are A Positive Barometer, At Least

By Will Chase on November 15, 2024 at 10:15 am
Columbus Blue Jackets center Zachary Aston-Reese (27) celebrates with the bench after scoring a goal against the Seattle Kraken during the first period at Climate Pledge Arena.
© Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
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Stating the obvious, the Columbus Blue Jackets need a win.

At November's midway point, they're still searching for their first victory in the month. The latest blow is the 0-4-1 road trip, which the team was in nearly every game and was probably due a better fate.

During October, the team scored at will. Now, those shots aren't getting past the opposing goaltender. The Jackets are outshooting opponents and, as the expected numbers have displayed, have probably been the better team of late, at least throughout major spurts and portions of games without a result to show.

But, the scoreboard is the true measure of success regarding wins and losses. Columbus might have outplayed the San Jose Sharks last week but they couldn't get more than a single goal past Vitek Vanecek.

Funny enough, the Blue Jackets made a habit of scoring six goals apiece in their first four wins. Now, they've gone seven straight games with two or fewer goals.

Per Natural Stat Trick, the below displays a snapshot of how the Blue Jackets performed on their road trip, holding edges in shot attempts, shot totals, and expected goals in every game at 5v5, even including the 7-2 loss to the Capitals on Nov. 2.

Blue Jackets vs Capitals CF CA SF SA GF GA xGF xGA
5v5 74 44 28 20 2 7 3.75 2.49
Nov. 2                

The Capitals buried the Jackets with a five-goal first period so it's probably expected the Blue Jackets would come out aggressive and blast the goaltender with shots.

Blue Jackets vs Sharks CF CA SF SA GF GA xGF xGA
5v5 65 40 37 22 1 1 4.02 1.21
Nov. 5                

Vanecek set a career-high with 49 saves in a 2-1 overtime win for San Jose, improving to 7-0-0 lifetime against Columbus.

Blue Jackets vs Kings CF CA SF SA GF GA xGF xGA
5v5 46 34 20 15 1 3 2.0 1.27
Nov. 9                

The Jackets scored first again but a three-goal third by L.A. was the undoing.

Blue Jackets vs Ducks CF CA SF SA GF GA xGF xGA
5v5 71 49 30 22 1 3 3.31 2.11
Nov.10                

Once again, a hot goaltender in John Gibson stonewalled Columbus with 38 saves. It was his first start since emergency appendectomy surgery in September.

Blue Jackets vs Kraken CF CA SF SA GF GA xGF xGA
5v5 66 52 33 28 2 3 3.45 1.90
Nov. 12                

The Jackets had one of their best periods of the season in Seattle, taking a 2-0 lead into the first-period intermission. But a four-goal second-period knockout punch by the Kraken undid the goodwill Columbus built up.

For the trip, the only number that matters is 0-4-1 and the positive trends we pointed to inside each game didn't lead to victories.

That's sports.

At the same time, the numbers inside each game point to strong indicators that if the Blue Jackets keep shooting and holding edges in expected goals, they should get those goals provided they keep with the process. 

It's frustrating when the team is outplaying its opponent in key metrics but gets beaten in two or three areas that directly lead to goals, such as turnovers that led to Kings goals last Saturday night.

Despite a collective good effort on most nights, including having the better of the 5v5 scoring chances in their last four games, it hasn't been enough to keep the team from its longest losing streak since last season when they dropped nine straight from Nov. 4-19.

Columbus will look to change that tonight against a team they've had little success against when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins at 7:00 p.m. ET.

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