An already wild playoff race is about to hit a different level.
The NHL has just one month left in its regular season, and the Eastern Conference remains a jumbled mess with no sign of clearing up anytime soon.
In the thick of it? The Columbus Blue Jackets, who are seeking their first playoff berth since the Covid-shortened 2019-20 season. Going 10-5-1 would give the club just their second-ever 100+ point season, but even that may be just enough to get them into one of the eight spots in the East.
Our Playoff Chase Tracker is a great way to keep up in real time with scores, standings, odds, and rooting interests.
But there's always more to know than meets the eye — so here's a deep dive into the Blue Jackets' quest for a playoff spot:
What Are The Possible Playoff Spots?
There's a lot of talk about making the playoffs, and while any Blue Jackets fan would be happy just to be in given the postseason drought, it's also more than fair to wonder what spots the team could end up in. If they make it, there are four realistic options:
- Metro Division, 2nd Place
- Metro Division, 3rd Place
- Wild Card, Spot One
- Wild Card, Spot Two
Second and third place in the Metro will face each other, but a wild card spot means the Blue Jackets would face one of the division winners. That's presumed to be the Carolina Hurricanes in the Metro, and either the Buffalo Sabres or Tampa Bay Lightning in the Atlantic. The team with the best record in the Eastern Conference will face wild card two; the other division winner will face wild card one.
What Do The Current Standings Tell Us?
Entering Monday, Columbus is one point back of both wild card spots (owned by the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings), and two points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders, who are tied for second in the Metro. The Islanders and Red Wings have played one more game than the Blue Jackets.
Even though the Blue Jackets are currently on the outside of the playoff picture, they're technically ahead of the Red Wings — just barely — in point percentage. Their .598 to .597 lead means it's Columbus, not Detroit, who is the current owner of the eighth-best record in the East. (This is where games in hand come up clutch.)
Behind the Blue Jackets, anything is always possible, but there's one team in particular to keep an eye on. If the Ottawa Senators had even average goaltending this season, the numbers suggest they'd be battling for a top spot in the Eastern Conference. If they get hot, look out — and by the way, the Sens' 7-1-2 record in their last ten games puts them as the second-hottest team in the conference behind Buffalo.
What *Else* Do The Current Standings Tell Us?
A few things, so let's switch it up and use bullet points:
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The Blue Jackets need to start racking up more regulation wins (23), which is the first tiebreaker for playoff spots. They have just three regulation wins in the ten games since the Olympic Break ended. The Islanders (24) and Red Wings (25) are close, but the lack of regulation victories means Columbus will very much be in trouble if it comes down to a tiebreaker with the Penguins, Bruins, or Senators.
-
One team "not pictured" on the standings above is the Montreal Canadiens. That's because they're in third in the Atlantic, but after back-to-back regulation losses this weekend, the Habs are just three points up on the Blue Jackets with the same number of games played. If Boston, Detroit, or even Ottawa gets hot, it could bump Montreal into a wild-card spot, in which they instantly become a huge factor for Columbus.
- Pending a team like the Washington Capitals or Philadelphia Flyers going on a big-time winning streak, there are going to be five spots open for seven teams. As mentioned above, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Carolina all feel safe. The case could be made that the Lightning are currently only four points higher than the second wild card and just five points ahead of the Blue Jackets, but the Bolts have 1-2 games in hand over every other team, have an easier-than-average remaining schedule (second-easiest in the conference according to Tankathon), and are four points behind the Sabres for the division lead with two games in hand. Most of all, they're the Lightning. They'll be fine.
What's The Schedule Look Like?
Okay, the table is set. Let's really dig in and look at things from a future perspective, and there's no better way to do that than by looking at the schedule.
As mentioned above, seven teams are competing for five spots. Here's a breakdown of the remaining schedule of all of those teams. It's color-coded as such:
- RED ("HARD"): A team that is 5+ points ahead of the Blue Jackets in points.
- GREEN ("EASY"): A team that is 5+ points behind the Blue Jackets in points.
- GOLD ("MIXED/BIG"): Another team on the chart (games against Columbus are light blue.)
| Team | #67 | #68 | #69 | #70 | #71 | #72 | #73 | #74 | #75 | #76 | #77 | #78 | #79 | #80 | #81 | #82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
VS. CAR |
VS. NYR |
VS. SEA |
@ NYI |
@ PHI |
@ MTL |
VS. SJ |
VS. BOS |
VS. CAR |
@ CAR |
VS. WPG |
@ DET |
@ BUF |
@ MTL |
VS. BOS |
VS. WSH |
 |
@ COL |
@ CAR |
VS. WPG |
VS. CAR |
VS. COL |
@ OTT |
VS. DAL |
@ NYI |
VS. DET |
@ TB |
VS. FLA |
VS. FLA |
@ NJ |
VS. WSH |
@ WSH |
@ STL |
 |
— |
@ TOR |
@ OTT |
@ MTL |
VS. CBJ |
VS. CHI |
VS. DAL |
VS. FLA |
VS. PIT |
@ BUF |
VS. PHI |
@ CAR |
VS. TOR |
VS. OTT |
VS. MTL |
VS. CAR |
 |
@ NJ |
@ MTL |
VS. WPG |
@ DET |
VS. TOR |
@ BUF |
VS. MIN |
@ CBJ |
VS. DAL |
@ FLA |
@ TB |
@ PHI |
@ CAR |
VS. TB |
@ CBJ |
VS. NJ |
 |
VS. BOS |
@ DET |
VS. NYI |
VS. CAR |
VS. CBJ |
@ NSH |
@ CAR |
@ TB |
@ NYR |
@ NJ |
VS. NJ |
VS. FLA |
VS. TB |
VS. CBJ |
@ NYI |
@ PHI |
 |
— |
VS. CGY |
VS. MTL |
VS. BOS |
VS. OTT |
@ BUF |
VS. PHI |
@ PIT |
@ PHI |
@ NYR |
VS. MIN |
VS. CBJ |
VS. PHI |
VS. NJ |
@ TB |
@ FLA |
 |
@ WSH |
VS. NYI |
VS. TOR |
@ NYR |
@ DET |
VS. PIT |
@ TB |
@ FLA |
VS. BUF |
VS. MIN |
VS. CAR |
VS. TB |
VS. FLA |
@ NYI |
@ NJ |
VS. TOR |
Let's go back to the bullet points to review what each team has left based on these three categories:
- BLUE JACKETS: Four red games, six green games, and six gold games.
- PENGUINS: Six red games, seven green games, and three gold games.
- ISLANDERS: Four red games, five green games, and six gold games.
- BRUINS: Six red games, six green games, and four gold games.
- CANADIENS: Four red games, six green games, and six gold games.
- RED WINGS: Three red games, seven green games, and five gold games.
-
SENATORS: Five red games, seven green games, and four gold games.
By looking at this, a few observations can be made. With apologies, more bullet points:
-
The Blue Jackets, Islanders, and Canadiens have six gold games left. In other words, the games on the schedule against their direct competition are, therefore, the proverbial "four-point games" on the schedule. There are huge, and Columbus is amongst the teams with the most of them.
-
A little more about Columbus' gold games: only two of them are at home, and two each are against the Bruins and Canadiens. The only divisional game left that's gold is the clash in Long Island on Sunday. Overall, three of the Blue Jackets' last five games are gold.
-
The Penguins are tied for the most green games left, but also are tied with the Bruins for the most red games left, too. If the Penguins are going to help the Blue Jackets, it'll likely be this week and next: five of their next seven are in the red, but their last six are against teams unlikely to be in the postseason picture. They also have the fewest gold games left, with three.
- The Red Wings have the easiest remaining schedule (as verified by Tankathon), but star forward Dylan Larkin remains out, and Detroit, with only eight points in their last ten games, is the coldest team of the seven.
So, What's The Best Path?
The Blue Jackets are two points out of a tie for second in the Metro, and if they can get there, they'd have home-ice advantage in a playoff series for the first time in franchise history. It's the obvious goal, but it's also going to be the hardest to obtain. If they can get it, or even move up to third in the Metro, they'll be all but guaranteed to face either the Penguins or Islanders in the first round.
As for the best path? The noise all becomes a lot quieter if the focus is a top three spot in the Metro: outplay the Islanders or Penguins by more than a game, don't let the Caps or Flyers make a run, and boom — playoffs.
The wild card race should require slightly fewer points than (maybe just a point or two, maybe a couple more) a top-three spot in the Metro, but the quantity of teams going after those spots is higher.
No matter which path they take, it goes without saying that every single game is important and that every single point matters from here on out — not just for the Blue Jackets, but for these other six teams too.
Should be a good time.
