When an NHL team’s season ends, you can measure in nanoseconds how quickly thought turns to “next year” – what needs to change? Which players will leave? Which players will join? But they are all in service of the most important question of all: how much better will the team be?
So far, in pursuit of the answer to this question, this off-season has been active for the Blue Jackets. They bought out Alexander Wennberg, traded away Ryan Murray, Markus Nutivaara, Josh Anderson, and acquired Mikko Koivu and Max Domi. And of course, there is still room cap-wise to make additional moves.
But is this enough?
Today, The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn used his GSVA model to evaluate every NHL team to date to see how much each team has changed thus far compared to last season and if it’s for the better or worse.
It’s worth noting that with the current financial circumstance of the league, Luszczyszyn weighted the progress of a team not just in terms of on-ice talent added or subtracted, but also in terms of cap space added – as that will certainly be of value in a flat cap world. In talking with Luszczyszyn, he approximates that $3.3 MM in cap space equates to one win, and when you consider that a replacement level player costs between $1 - $1.5MM, it’s easy to see the value actual salary dollars holds.
So, how did the Blue Jackets fare?
Of the 31 NHL teams, Columbus ranked 27th. Per Luszczyszyn, the Blue Jackets lost 1.6 wins, mainly due to defensive talent losses (for context, the range for all teams was plus-5.9 – minus-4; the average was zero). But let’s dig into that a little more and see if this team may be able to once again surprise some pundits and also see if this team is close to being a true Cup contender.
Here’s what the Blue Jackets look like right now using GSVA values from last season and relying on John Tortorella’s current thoughts on the opening lineup. (Note: GSVA predictions are not available for goaltenders so those values have been removed)
Data via Dom Luszczyszyn
Now let’s compare this to last year’s projected lineup:
Data via Dom Luszczyszyn
Here’s what’s gotten better for Columbus:
- As intended, the center position has strengthened
- The fourth line isn’t set in stone – but it’s overall an upgrade and could include players like Liam Foudy (GSVA: .06) and / or Mikhail Grigorenko (GSVA (2016-17): -.39)
- Other players whose value has gone up: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno, Riley Nash, Zach Werenski.
- While we don’t have GSVA values, Columbus’ goaltending was presumed to be replacement level at best last season (due to small sample size) and certainly outperformed expectations upping its overall value.
And what value has lessened?
- Overall, the defense isn’t as strong and isn’t as deep (Scott Harrington is projected as 7D right now)
- Players whose value lowered compared to last off-season: Cam Atkinson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Boone Jenner, Seth Jones, Dean Kukan, Gustav Nyquist, David Savard, Alexandre Texier.
Knowing how the Blue Jackets were asked to play, and what our gut tells us about the moves that were made, this feels more or less correct. But a few outliers that could lead to surprise?
- Dubois’ numbers feel low, and it’s worth noting that Luszczyszyn’s overall career projections for the player have him trending higher than noted here.
- Jones is another player whose stock could surely increase given more offensive opportunity.
- We would expect a player like Emil Bemstrom to improve on last season’s campaign.
But is this good enough? Here’s Luszczyszyn’s projection for how a lineup must measure out to be a true contender for the Stanley Cup.
Data and Viz via Dom Luszczyszyn
What do we see?
Other than the top line, the remainder of the Blue Jackets’ lineup falls within the range (albeit sometimes the lower ends) of what a contenders’ forward group looks like. And while only Bjorkstrand tracks with first line performance, as noted, Dubois and also Texier could be primed to improve. Defensively, while the third pair lacks the “required” punch of a contender at the moment, the group as a whole isn’t a liability.
Does this mean the Blue Jackets are ready to make a legitimate run? Maybe. Having a strong top line is certainly not a small piece of the puzzle, so Dubois and Texier will need to step up while Bjorkstrand’s game will have to continue on the trajectory of last year. And there can certainly be no regression comparable to what we saw last season. While the cap space Columbus currently owns could certainly be a weapon to bolster this roster wherever needed, Its also worth remembering where Columbus ranked among all teams in terms of improving thus far this off-season – just as they got better, so did a lot of other teams (relative to last year).
The Blue Jackets have gotten better – now they need to show if it’s enough and in the right ways come puck drop on the 2020-21 season.
