It's not too early to ask the question.
Is it still safe to assume that Elvis Merzlikins is the guy for years to come for the Columbus Blue Jackets?
Maybe.
But maybe not.
The 2022-23 season has gotten off to a rough start for Merzlikins. After missing the first two games with an illness, Merzlikins has been underwhelming in his first four starts this season. He's allowed 17 goals, and has a well-below average goals against average (4.19) and save percentage (.864). Of the 38 goalies in the NHL with three starts this season, Merzlikins ranks 32nd and 33rd in those two categories, respectively.
A young and inexperienced defense does need to take some of the blame, but it's unfair for them to be burdened with all of it. When the Pittsburgh Penguins scored a half-dozen times in their 6-3 win Saturday, no less than three of those goals are mostly on the 28-year-old Latvian. That was a game that the Blue Jackets could, and probably should, have won.
He's not trending in the right direction, either. Merzlikins' stats across the board have either plateaued or declined. Take a look at this chart:
| Season | GAA | xGAA Diff | SV% | High-Danger SV% |
| 2019-20 | 2.35 | -0.07 | .923 | .760 (Medium: .874) |
| 2020-21 | 2.77 | -0.11 | .916 | .652 (Medium: .903) |
| 2021-22 | 3.22 | 0.07 | .907 | .719 (Medium: .867) |
| 2022-23* | 4.19 | -1.53 | .864 | .667 (Medium: .900) |
The save percentages have gone down, the goals against average has gone up. What's not featured on that table is the low-danger save percentage, and that's key — successful goalies need to make all of the saves they should make, and some of the saves they shouldn't.
In Elvis' rookie campaign, his low-danger save percentage was .968. In 2020-21, it was .966. Last season, right back to .968. This season, it's .926. The sample size is small, but that's concerning. Going back to the 38 goalies with three or more starts, that numbers ranks 37th.
Last season, Merzlikins got a well-deserved pass on his struggles. But the numbers got worse after that January-dated analysis, and the start of this season has been an obvious nightmare.
Enter into the conversation: Daniil Tarasov. He's significantly younger (23) than Elvis (28). He's looked better and better in each game both last season before a hip injury and now, in his three starts this season. Given this and his age, it's time to wonder which goalie has the higher ceiling within the Blue Jackets organization.
Not for nothing, Tarasov also isn't in the first year of a contract that will pay him north of $5 million each year for the next half-decade. For a team that has just under $30 million annually tied up long-term with Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, and Zach Werenski — suddenly finding themselves skirting the cap and needing to move a talented forward in Oliver Bjorkstrand just to make that happen — it's a bad time to have players underperforming large, long contracts.
Whether or not Tarasov is the long-term solution in Columbus remains to be seen, but the flashes of brilliance so far can't be ignored. The numbers are there, the talent is there, and the technique is there.
The Blue Jackets need to see what they have in Tarasov, and the time to do that is now.
