The Columbus Blue Jackets entered the Olympic pause with a 10-1-0 record under new head coach Rick Bowness.
Clearly, whatever Bowness is preaching is working for this team. Equally as clear is that the opposite was true of Dean Evason.
Much has been written about the team's turnaround. It feels like whatever could have gone wrong under Evason has been ailed under Bowness. The team has a new swagger and is suddenly getting quality performances from Elvis Merzlikins, who started the season as a backup and was eventually much less than that.
BlueJackets.com's Jeff Svoboda correctly writes that "for starters, they are tied for second in the NHL in goals allowed per game (2.18) and second in goal differential (plus-19) since Bowness' first game Jan. 13, which pairs nicely with an offense that is tied for fifth in the league with 3.91 goals per game. Add in solid special teams (a combined power-play and penalty-kill percentage of 105.3) as well as the ability to close out leads, and the Blue Jackets have found a winning formula under their new head coach."
But, why? What is causing this turnaround? That was our question, too.
Low Event Hockey
Under Evason, the Blue Jackets were 5th in the NHL in shots for/60 while simultaneously giving up the 2nd most shots against/60 (all stats 5v5 and courtesy of NaturalStatTrick).
That's high-event hockey.
The teams that out-shot the Blue Jackets are exactly who one may expect - the Colorado Avalanche and possession-heavy Carolina Hurricanes are 1 and 2. Conversely, only the San Jose Sharks averaged more shots against.
Under Bowness, they are 14th in shots for/60 and have given up the 27th most shots/against.
That's low-event hockey.
This less frenetic, more methodical pacing has seemed to be agreeable with this team. Where Evason was spice and vinegar, Evason is a long walk on the beach.
It's not just the pace of shots against, either. Their 9.35 high-danger chances against/60 are tops in the NHL since Bowness took over.
Fewer Shots, Fewer Goals
Perhaps, then, it shouldn't be a huge surprise that Merzlikins and Jet Greaves have both benefited from the new coach. The team's save percentage (again, 5v5) has gone from 90.76% (Evason) to 93.02%, best in the Eastern Conference.
The chart below, from HockeyViz, illustrates this well. Refer to the bottom two area charts that show expected goals for/against (grey and red) over time.
The first of the two shows a plummeting of both xG and xGA in the month of January (when Bowness took over). Notably, the grey line (for) eclipses that of red (against) for much of the season, but in January, we can see both metrics fall below the NHL average. That supports the above thesis about suppressing shots at both ends of the rink. Fewer opportunities, fewer shots, fewer goals. That tracks!
The bottom chart is even more optimistic, and frankly, I wonder how sustainable it is. In essence, it shows that the Blue Jackets are scoring at a very high percentage of xG, while also giving up a very low percentage of xG, all at the same time. How much of that is 'coaching bump' vs. a long-term trend?
No Time To Tinker
Ironically, much of the 'system' play between the two coaches has remained intact. Part of that is a credit to Evason, and some of that is the realities of an even more condensed than usual NHL schedule that has precluded the team from many on-ice practices.
Sure, there has been some and will be more tinkering with how they play, but the changes seem to have been more about mindset, communication, and confidence than tactics and X's and O's.
With a week-plus of practice during the tail end of the Olympic break forthcoming, it will be interesting to see how Bowness uses that time. How much of that on-ice time will be about making wholesale system changes to a team that has captured 22 of 24 points since his arrival?
Ultimately, several factors are at play. The team was clearly stale under Evason and is obviously thriving under Bowness. In a sport that lends itself to a level of randomness, I can't help but wonder if Evason is simply unlucky, and if Bowness is similarly lucky. But, with a large enough sample size to look at, it sure feels like Bowness's ability to simply tighten the screws and play low-event hockey has been a major reason for the team's resurgence.
