The Columbus Blue Jackets may not be in a playoff position, but are in an enviable spot heading into the offseason.
Because of the Seth Jones blockbuster trade with the Chicago Blackhawks last summer, the Blue Jackets, who already are the beneficiaries of Cole Sillinger and Adam Boqvist, are still owed another first-round draft pick. As it stands today, the Blackhawks have the eighth-worst record in the NHL, meaning it's likely the Blue Jackets will pick in the top-10 with that pick, to say nothing of their own first-round pick (which is likely to be in the teens).
However, there's a 12% chance (assuming Chicago sticks in the same spot in the standings) that the Blackhawks win the lottery, picking either first (5.8%) or second (6.2%). If that happens, the Blackhawks will actually keep the pick, as the 2022 selection was purposefully lottery-protected by Chicago in the blockbuster trade.
So, in this (admittedly unlikely) hypothetical situation, the Blue Jackets wouldn't get the Blackhawks' pick until the 2023 NHL Draft, where, regardless of where Chicago finishes, the Blue Jackets will be awarded their pick.
So. Would it be better for the Blue Jackets to pick #8 or #9 (the eighth-worst team has an 83.4% chance of picking 8th or 9th), or roll the proverbial dice and pick wherever the Blackhawks finish - for better or worse - in 2022-23?
It's a classic "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" conundrum. On the one hand, picking 8th overall this year would give the Blue Jackets two first-round draft picks in back-to-back drafts (actually, in 2021, they had three). If those two prospects are anywhere in the realm of Kent Johnson/Sillinger, we're talking about a potentially dynamic roster, and in a hurry. On the other, this year's draft isn't perceived to be as strong as last year's, although it's hard to say much (at least definitively) about draft classes until years after the fact.
In the same vein, it's difficult to say with any degree of certainty what next season will bring for the Blackhawks. If they did win the lottery this year, it would be a jolt for their rebuild. And with franchise legends like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews pending UFAs after next season, there's plenty of reason to think that their management may be thinking towards the future, anyways. Toews, for his part, mentioned that he was "pretty shocked" that Brandon Hagel was shipped off for two future first-round draft picks. Would he want to stick around for a rebuild? And more to the point, would a sell-off mean an even weaker roster than this season, which would theoretically mean a lower finish in the standings, and thus a better draft pick?
Of course, the Blackhawks could feasibly find themselves right back in the thick of the playoff picture next year. Interim head coach Derek King has really righted the ship, plus they'll be a year removed from the off-ice disaster that was the beginning of the 2021 season. There's still star power on the Blackhawks and some good young players that could take another step. That, obviously, would mean the Blue Jackets would be waiting for a worse pick, a year later. Not ideal.
But there's a conceivable future where the Blackhawks win the 2022 Draft Lottery, then have a worse season in 2022-23 than they did this year, but with no lottery protection. That would be optimum for the Blue Jackets.
It may be wishful thinking, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. The Blackhawks won't finish at the very bottom of the NHL standings this season. But count me in the group pulling for them to win the draft lottery, and I'll take my chances in the 2023 NHL Draft.
