After two seasons away, the Columbus Blue Jackets seem well-positioned for a chance to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Whether or not that happens will depend on, of course, many things. Can they stay healthy? How will their divisional rivals perform, and will those players stay healthy? Are they facing teams with a hot goalie or do they luck out in the scheduling dynamics?
All factors, sure, but we know the largest factor by a country mile will be just how well this team plays and gels together in the 2022-23 season.
But there are a few players in particular who are likely to determine just how far this team can go — and some of them might be a surprise.
- JOHNNY GAUDREAU
Alright, this first name is no surprise. The Blue Jackets made one of the biggest splashes in the history of NHL free agency with the signing of Gaudreau, and to do it, they soon had to part ways with their leading goal scorer from last season.
Losing Bjorkstrand (who also led the team in points) was tough, but replacing him with Gaudreau (115 points last season) more than doubled the point-production provided by Bjorkstrand (57). Gaudreau forms a hard-to-stop top line wing pairing with Patrik Laine both in 5-on-5 situations and on the power play, where the two could boost Columbus' power play percentage to levels never before seen at Nationwide Arena.
POTENTIAL X-FACTOR: Gaudreau puts butts in seats, and the Blue Jackets are a team that, more than most others, feed off the environment around then. The Columbus Dispatch reported in July that the Blue Jackets had sold more full-season packages in 24 hours (after Gaudreau's arrival) than they do in a typical week during the offseason. A strong home-ice advantage could lead to a few points — and that may be the difference between a playoff spot and a tee time.
- ALEXANDRE TEXIER
Before his injury in late January, Texier was on pace for a breakout season. Despite just 36 games played, the argument could be made that he still had said breakout season. His 11 goals in those games would pace out to a 25-goal season, which would have put him third on the team behind Bjorkstrand and Laine. As it was, his goals per 60 minutes concluded at 0.97, just 3% behind Laine's 1.00 xGF/60.
Where Texier plays this season remains a mystery — any of the top three lines are a possibility, and any of the forward positions are a possibility. In projecting point totals for this season, our Dan Greene estimated a healthy season for Texier would lead to somewhere in the 35-45 point range. If Texier can hit the high side of that window, or go 20-30-50, it will mean the Blue Jackets have another steady contributor on offense.
POTENTIAL X-FACTOR: As a player who was here B.C. (Before Covid), it feels like Texier has been here forever. But he's still just 22 (23 when the season starts), and by no means is Texier a player who is a finished project or one who has hit a plateau. If he improves as much this season as he did last season, look out.
- JACK ROSLOVIC
Similar to Texier, the progress shown by Roslovic last season should have Columbus fans excited about their home-grown product. He averaged 0.70 points per game in the second half of the 2021-22 campaign, and the organization rewarded him with a contract extension that keeps him in Columbus for at least the next two seasons.
The Blue Jackets know what they have in some guys — Laine, Gus Nyquist, and Jake Voracek just to name a few. They know a little less in what they have with Roslovic, but this season is going to be his best chance yet to show he can be a top-six forward at the NHL level. If Columbus gets the kind of Rosy that we saw in the spring, the Blue Jackets are onto something.
POTENTIAL X-FACTOR: Roslovic needs to clean up his two-way game. Scoring goals and getting points is one thing, but at times last season he was a liability on the other end. Getting better without the puck will lead to a bigger role and more minutes, and more minutes = more goals, hopefully.
- ELVIS MERZLIKINS
This one is pretty simple, right? Merzlikins had the worst of his three seasons in 2021-22, in part because of an inexperienced and mistake-prone defense. The blue line is one year better, but Merzlikins play is going to be perhaps the biggest driving force behind games won that should have been won and, more important, games won that maybe shouldn't have been won.
Plain and simple, Merzlikins will need to show his first-year form for the Blue Jackets to have a legitimate chance at the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
POTENTIAL X-FACTOR: Daniil Tarasov. The 23-year-old had only a cameo last season before a hip injury put him out for the year, but he looked damn good in the limited sample size. When he comes back is unknown, but whenever that may be — it would only take the combination of a shaky Elvis and a solid Tarasov in Cleveland for the chatter to start.
