The NHL Draft is a week away, but the suspense is somewhat limited.
If the Anaheim Ducks pass on Adam Fantilli, he would seemingly be the pick by Jarmo Kekalainen and the Columbus Blue Jackets. If not, it's Leo Carlsson or Will Smith. That's it for Columbus in round one.
So the true drama of the summer for the Blue Jackets could unfold away from the draft table. In this week's Double Minor, here are four thoughts on what the summer might look like for Columbus — and what it could all lead to:
ONE: Free Agents Won't Be Free
The trades for Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson have given the Blue Jackets a boost on the blue line, and Columbus has too many wingers, so don’t expect much in free agency there.
But the hole amongst skaters is now crystal clear: a top-line center. Who might be out there?
Ryan O’Reilly, sent from St. Louis to Toronto before the trade deadline in the spring, is probably the best unrestricted free agent center on the market. That means that he’s going to get more than he’s probably worth, even at age 32. O’Reilly will probably see in excess of $6 million annually for a term of at least three years. That doesn’t seem like something that would behoove the Blue Jackets, especially with a soon-to-be number one center (hopefully) on the way in the draft. And that’s if O’Reilly even wanted to play with Columbus. In short, it doesn’t seem likely.
The second-best, reasonably available center isn’t clear, but it’s probably one of these names: Sean Monahan (injury prone), Alex Killorn (34 years old when the season starts), or take your pick from Alex Kerfoot, J.T. Compher, or, to save the most intriguing name for last: Ivan Barbashev.
Fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Vegas Golden Knights, his stock is admittingly as high as it may ever be. Is he a top line center on an elite team? He is not. But Barbashev is in the prime of his career (27 years old), has a stat line of 63 goals and 105 assists over the last two seasons, and fills an obvious need. There’s a lot of schematics involved, sure, most notably: would he want to play here? The Blue Jackets could swing it though, financially. Evolving Hockey projects his contract at about four years and a cap hit of $4.8 million annually. It would likely take a little more than that to get him here, but if he's the first or second line center for Columb this fall, there are certainly worse things in life — and he fills a gap until Carlsson (or Fantilli, or Smith, or Johnson…) is ready to take over on the top line.
TWO: Hayes Is Coming To Columbus... Right?
Jarmo Kekalainen is always active in the summer. It’s what he does. This time around, it just feels like a matter of time before Kevin Hayes is in Columbus. Hayes is a big (6-5, 220lb) center. He’s got a balanced, two-way game, excels on the penalty kill, and is very close to Gaudreau — which is, at the very least, noteworthy. He fills a need, plain and simple. Like Barbashev, Hayes is not a top center on a team ready to contend for the Cup. But (also like Barbashev), he’d be a better option than anyone currently on the roster.
One other thing to just consider, if even briefly: Philadelphia is also trying to move Carter Hart. If Columbus wants to move on from Elvis Merzlikins, would Hart be of interest to them? Again, the Blue Jackets have the cap space to take it on. The asking price is probably a bit high (rumors that Philadelphia wanted a couple of first-rounders), but the last time Columbus added a goaltender from the Flyers, it worked out well.
THREE: Jiricek's Spot
Despite the Blue Jackets having seven defensemen who are on one-way contracts (Bean, Boqvist, Gudbranson, Peeke, Provorov, Severson, and Werenski), they’ve got to find room for Jiricek to be in the opening night lineup. He turns 20 in November and while that’s certainly young, it feels like he’s capable of handling the load. There’s now talent in the room to help develop him, something that was missing last year. He improved steadily in the last year, too. Peeke feels like a trade candidate, and Bean feels like an afterthought. If that's the case, there's how Jiricek gets his spot and his minutes.
FOUR: Projections & Expectations
Let’s say that the Blue Jackets go into opening night looking something like this (assumptions: Roslovic and Robinson get moved; Columbus drafts Smith or Carlsson and they are not in the opening night lineup):
F1: Gaudreau—Hayes—Marchenko
F2: Jenner—Johnson—Laine
F3: Sillinger—Texier—Chinakhov
F4: Danforth—Kuraly—Voronkov
D1: Werenski-Severson
D2: Provorov-Jiricek
D3: Gudbranson-Boqvist
The entire top two-thirds of the defense is boosted with the trades for Provorov and Severson, the return of Werenski, and the addition of a talented young defender in Jiricek. If nothing else happens, that’s good enough to make the team 8-12 points better than last season. Bringing in Hayes, the continued blossoming of Marchenko and Johnson, the potential growth for Sillinger and Chinakhov, and the ability to put players in places they belong (Jenner in a middle-six wing role instead of 1C) is probably good for another 8-12 points.
Then there’s the Babcock addition — how much better is this team with a disciplined, proven winner as head coach? Let’s sat that’s good enough for another 8-12.
On a low end, that puts Columbus into the low 80’s for a point total. On the high end, they’re in the mid 90’s and flirting with a playoff spot. Whether or not that would be considered a success is a matter of your own perspective, but there have been (or will be) enough changes in Columbus this summer to warrant some degree of expectation in the coming season.
After last season, even that is a huge step in the right direction.
